Dunning-Kruger Effect
When people with low ability or knowledge at a task vastly overestimate their competence, while experts underestimate theirs.
THE TRAP TEST
1 / 5You just read a 10-minute article on cryptocurrency. Your friend asks for investing advice. You...
👇 Choose one option:
The Meta-Cognition Blind Spot
To know how bad you are at something, you need a certain level of skill in that exact thing. If you are terrible at logic, you lack the logical skills required to evaluate your own logic. Therefore, you naturally assume you are brilliant.
The Lemon Juice Bank Robber
The bias is named after McArthur Wheeler, a man who robbed two banks with his face covered in lemon juice. He learned lemon juice could be used as invisible ink, so he confidently concluded it would make his face invisible to security cameras. His extreme ignorance created absolute confidence.
How to Defend Yourself
Seek Brutal Feedback
Ask for harsh, objective feedback from proven experts. Do not ask your friends.
Embrace 'I Don't Know'
Make 'I don't know enough to have an opinion' your default stance on new subjects.
Track Your Errors
Keep a log of times you were absolutely certain about something, but turned out to be wrong.