Availability Heuristic
YOUR BRAIN
PROBABILITY
Thinking dramatic events are extremely common simply because they are scary, loud, and easy to remember.
THE TRAP TEST
1 / 5You are planning a vacation. You see a news story about a shark attack in Florida. You...
👇 Choose one option:
Memory as Probability
Your brain calculates risk by asking: 'How easily can I picture this happening?' If an event is highly emotional, bloody, or constantly on TV, your brain can picture it instantly. It then falsely concludes that because it is easy to remember, it must be highly probable.
The Post-9/11 Highway Deaths
After the September 11 attacks, the vivid terror of flying caused millions of Americans to drive instead of fly. Because driving is statistically far more dangerous than flying, researchers estimate that an additional 1,500 people died in car crashes the following year simply trying to avoid airplanes.
How to Defend Yourself
Look Up the Stats
Before making a decision based on fear, force yourself to look up the actual statistical base rate.
Turn Off the News
Understand that the news is a curated feed of statistical anomalies, designed to hack your attention.
Beware of Vividness
If a story has a highly emotional narrative, colorful imagery, or invokes terror, assume your risk assessment is currently corrupted.